Tomorrow, the voters in the United Kingdom will head towards the polling station to decide what the next government will be like. Thanks to the single constituency first-past-the-post electoral system, and the surge of the third party, the outcome is anybody's guess.
Considering its declining economic prowess and political influence, the election in the United Kingdom doesn't deserve such attention from the rest of the world. But as the oldest parliamentarian democracy, United Kingdom has amazingly maintained its two-party system for so long. A change seems very likely to come, and it will possibly reshuffle the system once and for all. This will show that whether two-party system is possible in a parliamentary system, which is a very interesting question to think about.
But it is interesting to see that how obsessed the Iranian media are with Britain. Many Iranians still think it is Britain who is ruling the world, and the United States is simply manipulated by their former master. There is a book about how the British prime ministers influenced and manipulated the American foreign policy, but I don't think there are many people who would agree with this.
It seems the Gordon Brown hasn't been greatly affected by his "bigoted woman" comment, which, by the way, is in surprisingly proper but impolite language. This potential disastrous gaffe was followed by his timely apology. Spending one day with a voter he has offended probably is not enough, but it seems that most voters who lean towards Labor, according to the polls, have forgiven him. After all, that woman, who questions Brown why he doesn't stop immigration from Eastern Europe, is quite bigoted.
I was wrong in the last post to say that the internet is playing a huge role in this campaign. It doesn't seem so. Not many candidates have twitter accounts, and those who do only have an average of several hundred followers. The technology is still influencing this election, only in that TV is the new technology for the Brits. In this age, after the success of Tony Blair a decade ago, even for the most reserved British people, young and charmingly handsome politicians with good public speaking skills in front of the camera are the trend of the future leaders.
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election. Show all posts
May 5, 2010
April 28, 2010
"Bigoted" woman begot it
For those who care about the UK election, it seems more and more interesting. As one of the first democracies in the world, and the example of political system for many countries, the UK election in this year is quite different, not only because of a possibility of hung parliament, but thanks to the tremendous influence of technology.
Because political aids are restricted limited on TV, online social media and networking websites are playing an unprecedented role, and Gordon Brown, who is ten years senior to the other two major candidates, looks much more clumsily under the never-ending limelight. His comment on a lady (calling her a bigoted woman, BBC) was caught by a microphone on his shirt, and the result is understandably disastrous. This will make the already-gloomy labor prospect even worse. On the contrary, the young, energetic, and multilingual (German, French, Spanish, Dutch plus English) Nick Clegg has taken advantage of the first ever television debate dramatically boosted the chance of his party, and the impact will be sustaining because of the electoral reform which will definitely benefit his party.
Technology does make a difference in politics, doesn't it? For leaders around the world, it's not too late to realize that. For those who can't even check emails (including Mr. John McCain), it's never too late to learn.
Because political aids are restricted limited on TV, online social media and networking websites are playing an unprecedented role, and Gordon Brown, who is ten years senior to the other two major candidates, looks much more clumsily under the never-ending limelight. His comment on a lady (calling her a bigoted woman, BBC) was caught by a microphone on his shirt, and the result is understandably disastrous. This will make the already-gloomy labor prospect even worse. On the contrary, the young, energetic, and multilingual (German, French, Spanish, Dutch plus English) Nick Clegg has taken advantage of the first ever television debate dramatically boosted the chance of his party, and the impact will be sustaining because of the electoral reform which will definitely benefit his party.
Technology does make a difference in politics, doesn't it? For leaders around the world, it's not too late to realize that. For those who can't even check emails (including Mr. John McCain), it's never too late to learn.
October 22, 2009
Why bother holding presidential election?
President Karzai finally accepted to participate in a run-off after a deeply fraud first round. Many people believed, with good reason, he had confidence to win, with or without the help of rigging, before being willing to back down after declaring the previous result of first round is legitimate.
Unpopular and corrupt as his government is, Karzai is still the favorite for America. His reelection seems best for the sake of stability in that shaken countries. Abdullah Abdullah isn't a majority Pashto, but a Tajik, which seems to be harder to win support over Pashto Taliban.
But what if there is widespread fraud in the second round? Some suggest forming a coalition government would be a wise option. Due to the fact that it's hard to hold a free and fair election under this harsh condition, we have adequately good excuse for picking this third way out of the dilemma. This also has been proved to be partly, though not totally satisfyingly, successful after similar cases in Kenya and Zimbabwe (incumbents rigged to close victory, but conceded to form coalition with opposition thanks to immense international and domestic pressure). Incumbents staying as president and opposition leader becoming prime minister seems to be a solution for future election controversy.
But since the incumbent will stay in the power anyway, why not just hold a prime ministerial election to share limited power with opposition? Why bother rigging the election to merely 51% and then shamefully giving in to pressure? We have only one answer: they are simply farces. If that also happens to Afghanistan, United States would even lose the last moral high ground.
Election Watch:
In Botswana, one of the Africa's best managed countries, the ruling party, which has been in power since the country's independence in 1965, once again renewed its mandate, in a seemingly free and fair election. The biggest opposition suffered a big blow, reducing from 12 seats to 6. The third party has gained ground, but the conflicting opposition cannot find a way to challenge the incumbents, making Botswana a Type-2 error in democratic statistics. Replying on the abundance of diamond resource, this country is successful and stable according to African standard. Voters feel no reason to change the status quo, which is totally understandable. But without a challange from the opposition, the ruling party will be hard to prevent from self-damaging with corruption and nepotism. A credible opposition should be the future if Botswana wants to become an example of whole sub-Sahara Africa.
Unpopular and corrupt as his government is, Karzai is still the favorite for America. His reelection seems best for the sake of stability in that shaken countries. Abdullah Abdullah isn't a majority Pashto, but a Tajik, which seems to be harder to win support over Pashto Taliban.
But what if there is widespread fraud in the second round? Some suggest forming a coalition government would be a wise option. Due to the fact that it's hard to hold a free and fair election under this harsh condition, we have adequately good excuse for picking this third way out of the dilemma. This also has been proved to be partly, though not totally satisfyingly, successful after similar cases in Kenya and Zimbabwe (incumbents rigged to close victory, but conceded to form coalition with opposition thanks to immense international and domestic pressure). Incumbents staying as president and opposition leader becoming prime minister seems to be a solution for future election controversy.
But since the incumbent will stay in the power anyway, why not just hold a prime ministerial election to share limited power with opposition? Why bother rigging the election to merely 51% and then shamefully giving in to pressure? We have only one answer: they are simply farces. If that also happens to Afghanistan, United States would even lose the last moral high ground.
Election Watch:
In Botswana, one of the Africa's best managed countries, the ruling party, which has been in power since the country's independence in 1965, once again renewed its mandate, in a seemingly free and fair election. The biggest opposition suffered a big blow, reducing from 12 seats to 6. The third party has gained ground, but the conflicting opposition cannot find a way to challenge the incumbents, making Botswana a Type-2 error in democratic statistics. Replying on the abundance of diamond resource, this country is successful and stable according to African standard. Voters feel no reason to change the status quo, which is totally understandable. But without a challange from the opposition, the ruling party will be hard to prevent from self-damaging with corruption and nepotism. A credible opposition should be the future if Botswana wants to become an example of whole sub-Sahara Africa.
| Parties | Votes | % | Seats | +/– | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana Democratic Party | 290,099 | 53.26 | 45 | +1 | |
| Botswana National Front | 119,509 | 21.94 | 6 | –6 | |
| Botswana Congress Party | 104,302 | 19.15 | 4 | +3 | |
| Botswana Alliance Movement | 12,387 | 2.27 | 1 | +1 | |
| Independents | 10,464 | 1.92 | 1 | +1 | |
October 7, 2009
China, please help my lovely son!
To celebrate the 50th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between communist China and communist Korea, Premier Wen Jiabao is in a three-day visit in North Korea.
This visit caught eyes of the world because the reportedly dying dictator Kim Jung-Il greeted the coming Chinese leader at the airport, which is extremely rare for him. Many predicted that it was a sign of willingness to restart six-party talks.
After the meeting, the two leaders jointly announced that the two countries' will continue their close friendship "for the generations to come". Clearly, Kim is preparing for his youngest son's succession. Kim Jung-Un, his 24-year-old, Switzerland-educated, son, has been reported to be named as his successor since his two elder sons are not fit for the job. (One is sick and the other has been caught using fake passport to visit Disneyland in Japan)
China has been the staunchest and possibly, only ally of North Korea. But in recent years, Kim has apparently tried to break out of this hoop by talking to U.S. directly, thus abandoning the six-party talks model which was proposed and held by China. But U.S. is reluctant to anger China and reward the dictator by agreeing to his terms.
So, what he can do is introduce his son to China. What he can hope right now is the Chinese government will support his son in the glorious cause to totally destroy his country.
(BBC has a cool video shot in North Korea recently. Please have a look. Pay attention to the North Korean who accused the BBC journalist of secretly shooting videos. It's like a teacher criticizing a first-grade student. It's really funny.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8293940.stm
Election Watch:
The election in Greece has put Socialist Party back to power, in a stunning defeat for the government. Winning 160 seats out of 300 in the parliament, the Socialist can now have a stable government to drag Greece out of the recession. Right now, this stability seems more important than who wins. The inauguration of George Papandreou continued the political dynasties in this country. For the outgoing Prime Minister Karamanlis, I still remember his tears when Greece beat Portugal in the final of Euro 2004, three months after he came to power. 2004 was a good year for his country, but 2009 seems to be totally different. Sorry!
This visit caught eyes of the world because the reportedly dying dictator Kim Jung-Il greeted the coming Chinese leader at the airport, which is extremely rare for him. Many predicted that it was a sign of willingness to restart six-party talks.
After the meeting, the two leaders jointly announced that the two countries' will continue their close friendship "for the generations to come". Clearly, Kim is preparing for his youngest son's succession. Kim Jung-Un, his 24-year-old, Switzerland-educated, son, has been reported to be named as his successor since his two elder sons are not fit for the job. (One is sick and the other has been caught using fake passport to visit Disneyland in Japan)
China has been the staunchest and possibly, only ally of North Korea. But in recent years, Kim has apparently tried to break out of this hoop by talking to U.S. directly, thus abandoning the six-party talks model which was proposed and held by China. But U.S. is reluctant to anger China and reward the dictator by agreeing to his terms.
So, what he can do is introduce his son to China. What he can hope right now is the Chinese government will support his son in the glorious cause to totally destroy his country.
(BBC has a cool video shot in North Korea recently. Please have a look. Pay attention to the North Korean who accused the BBC journalist of secretly shooting videos. It's like a teacher criticizing a first-grade student. It's really funny.)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8293940.stm
Election Watch:
The election in Greece has put Socialist Party back to power, in a stunning defeat for the government. Winning 160 seats out of 300 in the parliament, the Socialist can now have a stable government to drag Greece out of the recession. Right now, this stability seems more important than who wins. The inauguration of George Papandreou continued the political dynasties in this country. For the outgoing Prime Minister Karamanlis, I still remember his tears when Greece beat Portugal in the final of Euro 2004, three months after he came to power. 2004 was a good year for his country, but 2009 seems to be totally different. Sorry!
| Parties | Leaders | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panhellenic Socialist Movement | George Papandreou | 3,012,373 | 43.92 | +5.82 | 160 | +58 | |
| New Democracy | Kostas Karamanlis | 2,295,967 | 33.48 | −8.38 | 91 | −61 | |
| Communist Party | Aleka Papariga | 517,154 | 7.54 | −0.61 | 21 | −1 | |
| Popular Orthodox Rally | Georgios Karatzaferis | 386,152 | 5.63 | +1.83 | 15 | +5 | |
| Coalition of the Radical Left | Alexis Tsipras | 315,627 | 4.60 | −0.44 | 13 | −1 | |
October 3, 2009
It's Rio! It's real!
Olympics will finally go to South America. I feel a bit sorry for Tokyo and Madrid. They are both well-prepared, and I believe they can hold the best Olympics. But Brazil's development really deserves this recognition. Nowadays, sports is inextricaby connected with politics. Rotation of continents make sense, and giving it to a rising power who hasn't held any should never be a bad idea.
Chicago doesn't deserve this Olympics, for none of the candidate cities would have this kind of opposition from their citizens. It's funny to hear the CNN's anchor screaming "what" when he heard the name of Chicago as the first one to be eliminated. For Obama, it's pretty tricky. Republicans are now attacking him leaving when there is such an important debate. But if he didn't go and Chicago lost anyway, he would be criticized of not supporting the city enough. According to game theory, going is a dominant strategy, isn't it?
It's great to see a city, even a country, celebrating every two years for their success in getting the privilege to hold a global sports event. But the way of deciding which city to host it should be more transparent.
Another big news is Irish voters finally support the Lisbon Treaty. Now, no one could be to blame for any failure of further integration. Who can become the new President of European Council as well as the High Representative of Foreign Affairs would be a very interesting topic, and I believe there will be some very fierce discussion on that.
Election watch:
In this month, no important elections will be held. The elections in Greece and Uruguay could be the focal points because of their intensity. The Greek government is expected to lose according to the polls.
October 4, Greece, Parliament
October 16, Botswana, Parliament
October 20, Niger, Parliament
October 25, Tunisia, President and Parliament
October 25, Uruguay, President and Parliament
October 28, Mozambique, President and Parliament
September 28, 2009
No divorce on Oct 1!
China is going to celebrate the 60th anniversary of people's republic on October 1. According to the Chongqing municipal government, they divorce appointment could be made for that day, while the wedding registration will still be working.
Of course, divorce is in contrast with the harmonious society. At this sensitive moment, the government would try to prevent any potential threat to the harmony, either Tibetan separatist movement or domestic conflicts, from disrupting the rosy atmosphere in this country to celebrate the huge achievements and forget the negligible disasters in the past six decades under communist rule.
On the other hand, this day is so proud for the nation that so many people want to make it their happiest day in their lives by setting the wedding day on Oct 1. This would possibly overwhelm the capacity of the government, simply rendering it incapable of accommodating people who want to divorce. Having lived under the same roof together for several years, one day is not that hard to wait, isn't it? Probably seeing the country is so strong and prosperous, some couples would change their minds, and the society would be one step closer to "harmony".
Election watch:
Ther result of German federal parliament election has come out. Christian Democrats (CDU) led by Chancellor Angela Merkel won by a larger margin than last time, thus ending the uncomfortable "Grand Coalition" with center-left rival Social Democratic Party (SDP). Actually, out of the five main parties, only social democrats lost seats, and all the other gained significant number of seats. The biggest winner is the third party, natural ally of Merkel's party, Freedom Democratic Party (FDP), surging from 61 to 93 seats. Together with the CDU and its partner in Bavaria CSU, they won over 50% of the seats, sufficient to form a coalition government without the leftist parties.
This is certainly a good result for German people because Merkel government has performed well in the past four years. The country is moving out of the recession, faster than most of the other developed countries. Plus, a grand coalition turns out to be quite inefficient and slows down the necessary reforms in this country. A period of opposition status can also help the SPD reform itself to compete with CDU in the future.
The incumbent Socialist Party won the parliamentary election in Portugal, but its leading margin is reduced and it needs to form a coalition with other parties to get a majority in the parliament. A grand coalition with center-right PSD is likely to happen, though allying with two smaller leftist parties is also possible. But forming a coalition government is not insurmountable and José Sócrates is set to remain in the office.
The presidential election in Somaliland has been delayed again due to the "current political, economic and technical conditions."
Of course, divorce is in contrast with the harmonious society. At this sensitive moment, the government would try to prevent any potential threat to the harmony, either Tibetan separatist movement or domestic conflicts, from disrupting the rosy atmosphere in this country to celebrate the huge achievements and forget the negligible disasters in the past six decades under communist rule.
On the other hand, this day is so proud for the nation that so many people want to make it their happiest day in their lives by setting the wedding day on Oct 1. This would possibly overwhelm the capacity of the government, simply rendering it incapable of accommodating people who want to divorce. Having lived under the same roof together for several years, one day is not that hard to wait, isn't it? Probably seeing the country is so strong and prosperous, some couples would change their minds, and the society would be one step closer to "harmony".
Election watch:
Ther result of German federal parliament election has come out. Christian Democrats (CDU) led by Chancellor Angela Merkel won by a larger margin than last time, thus ending the uncomfortable "Grand Coalition" with center-left rival Social Democratic Party (SDP). Actually, out of the five main parties, only social democrats lost seats, and all the other gained significant number of seats. The biggest winner is the third party, natural ally of Merkel's party, Freedom Democratic Party (FDP), surging from 61 to 93 seats. Together with the CDU and its partner in Bavaria CSU, they won over 50% of the seats, sufficient to form a coalition government without the leftist parties.
This is certainly a good result for German people because Merkel government has performed well in the past four years. The country is moving out of the recession, faster than most of the other developed countries. Plus, a grand coalition turns out to be quite inefficient and slows down the necessary reforms in this country. A period of opposition status can also help the SPD reform itself to compete with CDU in the future.
The incumbent Socialist Party won the parliamentary election in Portugal, but its leading margin is reduced and it needs to form a coalition with other parties to get a majority in the parliament. A grand coalition with center-right PSD is likely to happen, though allying with two smaller leftist parties is also possible. But forming a coalition government is not insurmountable and José Sócrates is set to remain in the office.
| Party | Votes | % | Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
The presidential election in Somaliland has been delayed again due to the "current political, economic and technical conditions."
September 21, 2009
Democrats gained, but a long way to democracy in Macau
Democrats, who call for a universal suffrage in this Chinese special administrative region, won 4 seats out of 12 elected seats in today's Macanese legislative election. But the other 17 seats were selected by the Chief executive, which was appointed by the central government in Beijing.
The gaining hardly reflects a growing support of democracy because this is a result of changed strategy by the democratic movement. Because of the highest average method, the democrats split into two party lists in order to maximize their vote.
The pro-gov politicians still believe Macau is not yet ready for a universal suffrage. So when can they be ready? When they are more pliant to Beijing? If China really wants to have at least a minimal chance of having Taiwan back without a war, he should shows how a special administrative region works. It should be no less democratic than how Taiwan is right now.
The gaining hardly reflects a growing support of democracy because this is a result of changed strategy by the democratic movement. Because of the highest average method, the democrats split into two party lists in order to maximize their vote.
The pro-gov politicians still believe Macau is not yet ready for a universal suffrage. So when can they be ready? When they are more pliant to Beijing? If China really wants to have at least a minimal chance of having Taiwan back without a war, he should shows how a special administrative region works. It should be no less democratic than how Taiwan is right now.
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