October 22, 2009

Why bother holding presidential election?

President Karzai finally accepted to participate in a run-off after a deeply fraud first round. Many people believed, with good reason, he had confidence to win, with or without the help of rigging, before being willing to back down after declaring the previous result of first round is legitimate.

Unpopular and corrupt as his government is, Karzai is still the favorite for America. His reelection seems best for the sake of stability in that shaken countries. Abdullah Abdullah isn't a majority Pashto, but a Tajik, which seems to be harder to win support over Pashto Taliban.

But what if there is widespread fraud in the second round? Some suggest forming a coalition government would be a wise option. Due to the fact that it's hard to hold a free and fair election under this harsh condition, we have adequately good excuse for picking this third way out of the dilemma. This also has been proved to be partly, though not totally satisfyingly, successful after similar cases in Kenya and Zimbabwe (incumbents rigged to close victory, but conceded to form coalition with opposition thanks to immense international and domestic pressure). Incumbents staying as president and opposition leader becoming prime minister seems to be a solution for future election controversy.

But since the incumbent will stay in the power anyway, why not just hold a prime ministerial election to share limited power with opposition? Why bother rigging the election to merely 51% and then shamefully giving in to pressure? We have only one answer: they are simply farces. If that also happens to Afghanistan, United States would even lose the last moral high ground.

Election Watch:

In Botswana, one of the Africa's best managed countries, the ruling party, which has been in power since the country's independence in 1965, once again renewed its mandate, in a seemingly free and fair election. The biggest opposition suffered a big blow, reducing from 12 seats to 6. The third party has gained ground, but the conflicting opposition cannot find a way to challenge the incumbents, making Botswana a Type-2 error in democratic statistics. Replying on the abundance of diamond resource, this country is successful and stable according to African standard. Voters feel no reason to change the status quo, which is totally understandable. But without a challange from the opposition, the ruling party will be hard to prevent from self-damaging with corruption and nepotism. A credible opposition should be the future if Botswana wants to become an example of whole sub-Sahara Africa.

Parties Votes % Seats +/–

Botswana Democratic Party 290,099 53.26 45 +1

Botswana National Front 119,509 21.94 6 –6

Botswana Congress Party 104,302 19.15 4 +3

Botswana Alliance Movement 12,387 2.27 1 +1

Independents 10,464 1.92 1 +1

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