September 20, 2009

End of the Star War?

Obama administration finally scrapped the plan to install anti-missile defense system in Eastern Europe. The plan was put forward by the previous administration, which they claimed to be a precaution to potential Iranian missile threat, but actually stirred Russian government's strong objection.

Some politicians and analysts voiced their concerns. They believe this move, clearly aiming to appease Russia before Obama's meeting with Pres. Medvedev in a few days, is a damaging precedent. The growing-aggresive Russian government will certainly be encouraged to take a more hawkish and less cooperative foreign policy. Moreover, this will anger Poland and Czech Republic, indicating U.S. will abandon their interests whenever necessary.

I applaude this move, because this serves the best interests of the United States, Eastern European countries and the international community.

The plan was based on a non-existent Iranian threat to Europe. Iran's long-distance missile technology still has a long way to go, and whether he wants to threaten Europe is also disputable. But what we know is this installment will certainly make Russians angry. Of course, Russian's assertion of sphere of influence in Eastern Europe is objectionable, but showing off power in front of Russia's front door is not a good way to quell Russian's growing ambition, but to stimulate it.

Realists believe the states will always ask for more if they are given what they want. That was possibly true during the time of Cuban Missile Crisis, but whether it would be the case now is questionable. No longer a superpower, Russia understands his capability and limitless demand wouldn't help his dream of reemergence. On the contrary, Obama administration's new plan strips Russia of his excuse of non-cooperation. Russia now will face a massive pressure from international community to work with other countries in forcing Iran to terminate its nuclear program. It also weakens the popular support of hawkish foreign policy in Russia. This is not a surrender of power, but a correction of a non-starter in the first place.

On the other hand, this plan doesn't mean that U.S. forsakes its right to install any missile system in Eastern Europe in the future if necessary. And military believes the new plan will work more efficiently.

We should also remember the fact that Polish and Czech governments and public didn't like that plan proposed by the Bush administration at first. The high cost and a clear provocation to Russia is hurtful to both of them. The implication on the relations with those two countries won't be so distrastrous as many predict.

Flexibility in foreign policy is always important. Setting too many things as non-negotiable would hurt the foreign policy-making process and the result is unlikely to be pleasing. Being tough will never bring an ambitious Russian back to the table, so why not try something new? The end of the star war is a good news for everyone.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Anthony, just finished reading your blog--great job! molodets!
    Posit this: is the end of a deterrence system in former soviet states or satellites a good thing? For those of us in America, the fear of the Soviet bear seems outdated and absurd, but for those who live in its ursine shadow, the threat is all too real. Not too many years ago, the Russians were marching across the boulevards of Prague and Berlin, yet are we supposed to forget this? History surely seems cyclical, and therein lies the danger...America and Britain were supposed to have shed their colonial pasts, yet somehow the USA finds itself supporting two failed states and Britain embroiled in a mountainous country she was to have left last century. Who is to say that Russia will not repeat her past? A year ago, no one believed Russia would go to war with one of her former republics, and today Abkhazia is a de facto Russian oblast...And where will the pressure to work with America or Europe come from--Russia controls Europe's gas lines, a fact she will not let go unnoticed as we head into another winter. Russia may or may not want a return to superpower status, but she does want status--the question is, how will she get it?

    Lemme know what you think!
    Travis

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  2. That's a tough question, Travis. Let me thank about that.

    Thank u for your comment!

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